Sunday, March 15, 2009

Gold: Not A Bubble

Seeking Alpha

One of my colleagues has repeatedly asked me this question. I am quite clear on the answer: “NO”.

How many people do you know who actually hold GLD? How many people do you know who are actually buying gold? How many people do you know actually buy mining shares? The answer all too often is close to zero.

A bubble is ALWAYS easily recognizable (unlike the shameful Greenspan who claims that it can only be seen hindsight). The participation rate will be quite high, so that you are bound to hear about it in news REPEATEDLY, and enough that it will be always the “topic of the party”. A bubble is a collective ignorance or rather frenzy, and there is always a disconnect to reality.

In fact, gold is looking extremely good technically, forming the bottom of the cup in a cup and handle chart. The next rising up is usually pretty substantial.